Senate map tightens as three toss-up races move within the margin of error

Polling averages compiled by RG News now show three Senate contests within two points, up from one a month ago, as late advertising and a series of debates have reshaped the map.

Both parties have shifted money accordingly, pulling spending from races that appear settled and concentrating it on the three states where the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.

Analysts caution that polling in midterm cycles has historically been less reliable than in presidential years, and that the direction of the final shift is difficult to predict.